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Project Overview

The overarching goal of the full project work is to transition a well-tested system for generation of ensemble post-processed hazard guidance products to operational status within the National Weather Service (product generation within NCEP and dissemination of hazard grids to NWS operational forecasters). A direct outcome of the project will be improved ensemble hazard guidance tools for operational forecasters that will reduce the ensemble information overload problem and enable a more efficient and accurate characterization of forecast uncertainty. Ultimately, the quality and usefulness of the weather guidance information provided by the NWS to the public will increase.  Collaborative work throughout the project will focus on interpretation, use, and evaluation of these products by NWS operational forecasters at national centers and local forecast offices, with feedback to the product developers for further refinement of the products.


The overall project is designed to be a well-coordinated collaboration among groups active in model development (ESRL/GSD, NCEP/EMC), operational forecasting (NWS/WPC) and local WFOs, verification (NCAR/JNT) and weather communication research (NCAR/MMM) to evolve and refine a set of existing ensemble guidance tools into a more comprehensive and effective high-resolution ensemble-based hazard detection guidance tool and transition it to become an NWS operational system. The proposed research focuses on developing and integrating two of the identified priority areas: (1) “improving operational model output guidance” with contributions from ESRL/GSD, NCEP/EMC and NCAR/JNT and (2) “communicating uncertainty”, led by the NCAR/MMM social science team.

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