Track Summaries

MAE UCAR Cloud Cover/Concrete

13.9°F

4.7°F

8.7°F

MAE UCAR Cloud Cover/Asphalt

18.9°F

8.8°F

15.6°F

MAE UCAR Radiation/Concrete

16.7°F

7.4°F

9.0°F

MAE UCAR Radiation/Asphalt

22.7°F

16.8°F

17.2°F

MAE TRD

12.9°F

4.2°F

4.2°F

You saw where I was taking temperature measurements. There was some banking involved in this particular case. Friday: We were both off a lot. Clouds were more than forecast and ambient was a little lower as well. Saturday: Peak was off some but generally did not look too bad. Cloud coverage was close but thickness was off middle of the day. Sunday: TRD looks pretty good. NCAR was a little high.

MAE UCAR

2.3°F

1.4°F

2.3°F

MAE UCAR

5 mph

2 mph

1 mph

MAE UCAR

324.8 W/m²

168.5 W/m²

38.0 W/m²

MAE UCAR Cloud Cover/Concrete

6.8°F

13.2°F

15.5°F

MAE UCAR Cloud Cover/Asphalt

17.0°F

12.6°F

23.1°F

MAE UCAR Radiation/Concrete

7.7°F

11.1°F

13.9°F

MAE UCAR Radiation/Asphalt

17.3°F

10.1°F

21.0°F

MAE TRD

7.6°F

5.6°F

15.7°F

We made some improvements to the sample so it looks a little better. Still a work in progress. We were not very good here and I expect similar results for Atlanta NHRA. Friday: Basic weather prediction was good. The solar was off based on Intellicast. The NCAR solar looked pretty good. Track temp by TRD was not really good. The nominal NCAR was close, but the exp (asphalt) was high. I have the radiation data for this but did not plot as was not sure what it represented. Saturday: For the track temperature data available the NCAR and TRD looks pretty good on this day. The exp was high. Unfortunately the solar got more interesting later in the day but we did not get track temps to see what happened. Sunday: Ambient started a little lower than expected by NCAR and Intellicast. Actual solar was much lower than NCAR and TRD (intellicast) predicted, so as you would expect the track temp forecast was high.

MAE UCAR

1.6°F

3.8°F

4.3°F

MAE UCAR

2 mph

1 mph

3 mph

MAE UCAR

380.4 W/m²

256.3 W/m²

313.7 W/m²

MAE UCAR

4.6°F

9.5°F

MAE TRD

2.8°F

3.6°F

The wind speed sensor has been fixed so all weather data should be valid. We further insulated the sample and it is still too cool. We will work on it some more. Also note for Crystal that all the NCAR data on the plots was the latest data on the web site when I pulled the Intellicast forecast, so should be apples to apples. I will try to do this from this point forward. Friday: NCAR prediction was a little low. We both missed the clouds going away in the afternoon earlier than expected. I looked at later NCAR forecast to see if it caught this coming and it did not. Unfortunately I do not record all the Intellicast updates each hour so I cannot go back and see how their model did with this information later in the morning. Saturday: Results not so critical as night race. I was a little high but weather was not too good prior to race. No NCAR data for this day available. (plotted last UCAR data set from Fri.)

MAE UCAR

2.2°F

3.9°F

4.9°F

MAE TRD

5.2°F

3.1°F

9.5°F

Wind sensor is not working and I am not sure when we will have it fixed. I also took my observations on cloud percentage. You seem to be a lot more accurate than Intellicast, but I think filter value on those clouds is not always correct for either one of us. Thursday temps you looked very good. It appears your cloud coverage prediction was better then the public one I am using. That seemed to be the case all weekend. Friday temps looked good for both of us. Saturday did not look for either of us. Cloud coverage was like your forecast shows near 100%. Precipitation % was low and it did not rain but the clouds were very thick to the point of really looking like it might rain. So seems like the filtering in this case was not good as the integrated water in the air was probably higher than forecasted or our indicators don't really show it.

MAE UCAR

8.8°F

6.5°F

MAE TRD

1.7°F

5.6°F

I think the Asphalt numbers were similar for us. I think due to the corners being concrete would should run this one as white concrete. I am attaching data for both surfaces. No data for Saturday.

MAE UCAR

7.8°F

4.5°F

9.5°F

MAE TRD

5.0°F

9.0°F

5.5°F

Bristol data was complete junk so we cannot use it. Here is Fontana data. Friday: TRD was closer but both of us were off due to Solar forecast not being very good. Lot more clouds early in the day than the forecast. Saturday: Cloudy in the morning you were closer and when the sun came out TRD was closer. All around the solar forecast was not really good which made the numbers off. Sunday: Interesting day as no clouds at all in morning and then clouds and rain. Forecast missed the clear skies in the morning which made us both miss the forecast.

MAE UCAR

2.8°F

4.5°F

2.7°F

MAE TRD

3.7°F

3.3°F

4.5°F

Friday: Your track temperatures looked really good. Weather also looked very good. Saturday: Track temperature was a little off. Weather looked good. Sunday: Track temps struggled due to cloud cover not matching forecast. Otherwise not too bad. My track data is real track in the file above, and the track in this weather file is the sample. I would use my actual track data and not the sample as it is still in work. Sunday's data got lost. We have some issue with data transfer we will sort out that happens on race day.

MAE UCAR

1.6°F

2.2°F

MAE UCAR

2.7 mph

2.3 mph

MAE UCAR

98.7 W/m²

61.8 W/m²

MAE Cloud Cover/Concrete

4.6°F

5.6°F

14.1°F

MAE Cloud Cover/Asphalt

5.9°F

5.0°F

6.8°F

MAE Radiation/Concrete

1.6°F

4.3°F

14.1°F

MAE Radiation/Asphalt

7.7°F

5.8°F

6.8°F

none

MAE UCAR

1.1°F

0.8°F

5.7°F

MAE UCAR

3 mph

2 mph

2 mph

MAE UCAR

128.5 W/m²

99.3 W/m²

213.4 W/m²

MAE

4.6°F

12.6°F

4.9°F

We had to reset the Weather Station on Friday after it locked up, didn't recover logging till Friday PM. I could not access your web site at all on Sat and in the end there were only 3 data sets. The main files used the last set on Friday for Sat NCAR. NCAR prediction was low which I think might be due to incorrect albedo.

MAE

7.8°F

11.0°F

12.2°F

As indicated on the phone your values are a bit low. I think it is due to being calculated for asphalt not the rubber coated concrete.