Systematic Model Error

Diagnostic

Model bias for U/V/T/Q/Ps computed from gen_be with the NMC method (24h minus 12h forecasts) for AMPS1 domain over the period from 10/01/2006 to 10/29/2006.
Temperature bias near top of model over Antarctica region.

  • Indicator = NMC method (24h - 12h forecast)
  • Location = at top model level and (to a smaller extent) at the 4 levels below.
  • Shape = Vortex type with opposite signs b/w Antarctica plateau and southern oceans
  • Variance = large, due to rotation of vortex. Contaminates gen_be -> leading eigenvectors for T_u are located near model top.
  • Investigate 36h -24h and 12h - 00h vs. 24h - 12h forecasts to check if we are facing a constant bias, growing error or diurnal effect.

Possible explanations

  • Radiation
    Investigate different radiation schemes. Goddard SW scheme uses ozone (in stratosphere) (option 2). LW default scheme = option 1.
  • Ozone
    Investigate correlation b/w bias and ozone field.
  • Dynamics
    Investigate correlation b/w bias and height field.
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