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  • Aggregated ROC for SFE2016 to-date (3-hrly ROC area by forecast lead time)
    • Assess mixed core vs. single core - In general, mixed (ARW+NMMB) beats core beats any single (ARW or NMMB) core; for single core, ARW generally beats NMMB
  • When looking at FSS: mixed (ARW+NMMB) beats core beats any single (ARW or NMMB) core; for single core, NMMB generally beats ARW at shorter lead times and ARW beats NMMB at longer lead times
    • When they compute FSS they do the following:
      • Make obs 0/1 and apply smoother to get continuous values between 0-1 in obs
      • Apply a 40 km radius to forecast field
      • Difference forecast probabilities from the observations and look at the squared difference
  • Does influence of DA extend longer when looking at probabilities rather than deterministic?
  • They compared PQPF to observations by using the same threshold for a single case
  • This blog entry has an example of the ROC curves and PQPF comparison that we looked (http://springexperiment.blogspot.com/2016/05/clue-comparisons.html#more). I can't seem to find a link to these plots on the testbed webpage (http://hwt.nssl.noaa.gov/Spring_2016/), however.