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  • Examine NWP model forecast performance for TAIWIN-relevant fields. Monitor operational model performance while investigating the performance of pre-implementation (experimental) model versions to quantify impacts of new developments in a similar manner as that used for FY15 for surface fields. In addition, utilize methods established during FY16 for verifying conditions aloft. Apply spatial verification techniques to acquire advanced diagnostic information to help identify strengths and weaknesses of the models. Investigate the use of object-based verification methods to explore their utility. Assist the time-lagged ensemble (TLE) TAIWIN modeling task with verification needs during the development process.
    • Deliverable: Final report detailing updates on surface and aloft verification for the operational HRRR, experimental HRRR, and the TLE HRRR
    • Deliverable: Submit a journal article ??
    • Funds: $150k ??
  • If they are not interested in us "redoing" what we did this year at the surface (or if they reduce it significantly) some things I would like to consider are:
    • Examine the accuracy of the model surface temperatures right around 0C
    • Conduct a multivariate analysis to determine the usefulness of examining information such as what the distribution of mixing ratios from the model is given the precipitation category predicted
    • Evaluate the cloud properties/characteristics in the model
  • Tasking document
  • Most recent SOW states (20170606):
    • NCAR must:

      1. Verify conditions aloft for microphysics forecasts and NWP model forecast performance utilizing methods previously established. /deliverable=Y [for 1-5 here]; $104K [for 1-5 here]; pp 3a6
      2. Investigate the performance of pre-implementation (experimental) model versions to quantify impacts of new developments in a similar manner as that used for surface fields. /deliverable and funding shared with “Task 3: #1” above; pp 3a7
      3. Investigate the use of object-based verification methods and apply, as appropriate, to acquire spatial verification techniques to acquire advanced diagnostic information to help identify strengths and weaknesses of the models for cloud- and precipitation-related fields. /deliverable and funding shared with “Task 3: #1” above; pp 3a8
      4. Assist the time-lagged ensemble work effort with verification needs. /deliverable and funding shared with “Task 3: #1” above; pp 3a9
      5. Perform an in-depth diagnostic investigation for select case studies to identify trends in model microphysical characteristics with input from NOAA ESRL as necessary. /deliverable and funding shared with “Task 3: #1” above; pp 3a10
    • Deliverable:
      • Provide a final technical paper detailing updates on surface and aloft verification for the experimental HRRR and the time-lag ensemble HRRR. March 31, 2018 104k; Task 3: 1-5 3a11
  • Icing Tools Workshop (Dec 6-8, 2017) presentation

 FY16

  • SOW: Utilize output of from the Freezing Drizzle algorithm to further assess surface weather type in the models using these enhanced observations and begin exploring methods to verify aloft conditions
    • Deliverables:
      • Final report detailing updates on surface present weather type verification utilizing output from the freezing drizzle algorithm
      • Archive datasets from January through March 2017 that are necessary to conduct TAIWIN-relevant verification for the operational HRRR upgrade and other operational models of interest
      • Final report describing approaches that will be used to verify upper air model data
    • Funds: $50k
  • Final Report - Neighborhood Evaluation (HiRA)

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